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Mashable
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
TRENDING STORIES IN BUSINESS & MARKETING
8 Tips to Negotiate a Higher Salary
Street Campaign Trades Free Shoes for Instagram Photos
How Google Could Lose Its Grip on Mobile Search
ALL STORIES IN BUSINESS & MARKETING

LG Scares the Crap Out of People in an Elevator to Show Off Its Monitors [VIDEO]
Monday, October 22, 2012 7:35 PMTodd Wasserman

Just in time for Halloween, LG has introduced this video of people getting a big scare thanks to the company's high-res monitors.

To show off just how life-like the picture on its monitors can be, the company re-fitted the bottom of an elevator with the screens. The brand then recorded people's reactions as the monitors -- screens pointed up -- displayed what looked like the bottom of the elevator floor dropping out. True, you could probably do that with a lot of monitors, but LG thought of it first.

Luckily for the brand, no one had a heart attack during filming. Of course, it's also possible that these people are actually actors, too. If not, some of these guys deserve a Carlsberg for their courage.



Top Hat Monocle Transforms Tech From Classroom Distraction into Teaching Tool
Monday, October 22, 2012 7:01 PMSeth Fiegerman

Name: Top Hat Monocle

Quick Pitch: Transform tablets and smartphones from classroom distractions into teaching tools.

Genius Idea: Top Hat Monocle lets college students use smartphones, tablets and laptops instead of traditional classroom response systems to engage with their professor's lectures.

If Top Hat Monocle has its way, teachers won't yell at students for taking out their cellphones in class -- they'll encourage it.

The Toronto-based startup is rethinking the way students engage with teachers during college lectures by replacing so-called "clickers" -- the remote-control response systems used in classrooms -- with web-based applications that work on students' smartphones, feature phones, tablets and laptops.

Professors who opt to incorporate the service into their classrooms can develop interactive quizzes, surveys, discussions and other features, and encourage students to engage with these presentations through their mobile devices.

Mike Silagadze, the company's CEO and co-founder, came up with the idea for Top Hat Monocle while studying engineering in college. "The lecture experience wasn't very engaging, and didn't add a lot of value," he tells Mashable.

As a result, Silagadze says attendance typically dropped by 20% to 30% by mid-term. "That's pretty disastrous if you think about the amount of energy and time that goes into preparing for the lectures by the professors and by the schools preparing equipment for it."

Silagadze developed an application to help boost engagement while still in school, officially launching Top Hat Monocle in late 2010. Since then, the service has been used by teachers in nearly 200 universities worldwide (mostly in the United States and Canada); Silagadze expects to reach 200,000 students by the end of this year.

Top Hat Monocle raised $8 million in a round of funding from Emergence Capital Partners, iNovia Capital and other companies this summer, on top of $1.5 million it raised in a previous seed round last November. The startup has put that money to work, growing its staff and customer support side, and expanding its presence in new markets. Top Hat Monocle recently opened an office in Australia, and Silagadze hopes to expand into the U.K and Europe next.

The educational tool is free for teachers, but the company makes money from students, who pay $20 a semester for a subscription to the service if they choose to use it. Top Hat Monocle generated $1.2 million in revenue during the 2011-12 school year, and expects to generate about $4 million in revenue this academic year.

Top Hat Monocle isn't the only tool trying to integrate mobile devices into the classroom in a positive way. Socrative, for example, offers a similar service that lets classrooms use smartphones and laptops in place of traditional classroom response systems. But Top Hat Monocle's healthy funding and wide range of sophisticated features put it well in front of its competitors.

In addition to its other interactive features, Top Hat Monocle recently launched its first-ever cross-campus tournament that lets classrooms compete against each other on interactive quizzes. The first tournament took place earlier this month between the University of Waterloo and the University of Toronto, and others are planned between Stanford and Berkeley, as well as Harvard and MIT. This endeavor will further boost engagement around learning, and also has the potential to provide data comparisons for students in different schools -- a potentially useful service in its own right.



Apple, Google Are Profitable Since They Know Where to Lose Money
Monday, October 22, 2012 5:42 PMQuartz

To understand which firms are going to end up dominating the market for tablets and mobile phones, it helps to notice that we now live in an era in which every successful company selling hardware and content is giving something away for free. And the companies that can't afford to give something away for free are now competing with commodity manufacturers that could drive them into bankruptcy.

Subsidy - either of hardware by content, or content by hardware - is the common thread running through Apple's iPad mini (due to be announced Tuesday), Microsoft's move into hardware with its Surface tablet (due later this week), Nokia's slow demise, Amazon's ascent, and the modest success of every regional Android handset manufacturer on the planet. It's notable that the successful firms have opted for either one model or the other: none makes significant money from both content and hardware.

Here are the implications for the biggest players:

Google

Google practically gives away its hardware, in order to get users onto a mobile experience that it can control, and where it can sell advertising and continue to dominate search.

Google is selling its current Nexus 7 tablet at cost, and is absorbing the associated marketing expenses. For something that costs only $200, it's a fancy device, so it's no surprise that the company may have sold a million of them since they became available three months ago. Google also levies no licensing fees associated with its open-source Android mobile operating system.

So how does Google make money? Ninety-six percent of Google's 2011 revenue came from advertising. While Google might not describe itself as a content company, its entire Android business model is built around keeping users searching for and consuming content on its sites. Android tablets made by other manufacturers were selling poorly in comparison to Apple's iPad, so the company clearly felt the need to step in and create a device compelling enough to get users onto Android, where it can make money.

Apple

Apple gives away content in order to justify premium pricing.

Apple makes only "a bit over break-even" from the billions of dollars in music, apps and other content that it sells. It does, however, charge a premium for its hardware, achieving margins that none of its competitors can match. As a result, Apple is more profitable than all competing Android handset makers combined.

HTC, Nokia, Microsoft and Others

Without either free content or free hardware, brand-name stalwarts of hardware are forced to compete with regional manufacturers who are content with much slimmer profit margins.

The market for mobile devices is becoming "a big barbell with Apple-Samsung at one end and China at the other end," wrote Vijay Rakesh, an analyst at Sterne Agee, in a recent note to clients. What that means is that users with money to spend are willing to pay a premium for the best hardware that gives them the apps and content they prefer, whether Apple's or Google's. And those without so much money are happy to pick up cheap hardware like the kind coming out of commodity tablet and handset manufacturers in China. (This is the same cheap hardware that Google and Amazon are selling through to their customers.)

HTC's profits are slipping, and Nokia just lost $1.27 billion. Microsoft still makes plenty of money licensing Office, Windows and other software to businesses, but the company is taking a huge risk by moving into hardware with the Surface. Its success or failure will depend largely on the population of apps for the new Windows 8 operating system which runs on Surface, and which is just getting off the ground. If developers fail to flock to the platform, and users fail to follow, the company could find itself competing with the same commodity manufacturers that are wiping out the margins of companies like Nokia.

A Philippine handset manufacturer called my|phone, which you've probably never heard of, doesn't make piles of money, but it doesn't need to. It's a perfect example of the regional handset manufacturers in emerging markets whose slim profit margins mean stiff competition for larger makers.

Amazon

Amazon, like Google, only makes money when you buy content on the devices it sells at cost.

Perhaps no one has been more vocal about the hardware vs. software subsidy than Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. "We want to make money when people use our devices, not when people buy our devices," he told the BBC. In terms of its hardware, Amazon's Kindle Fire HD tablet is in the same class as Google's 7 inch Nexus. The difference is that it comes pre-loaded with Amazon's easy-to-use online store for movies, music, books, periodicals and games. You can use it to browse the web, as you could - much more clunkily - on the Kindle e-reader before it, but that's not really the point. It's a way for Amazon to make purchasing and consuming content as easy as possible.

Samsung

Samsung, like Apple, makes its money off hardware. As the largest maker of Android-powered phones, Samsung has essentially outsourced all of its content to Google, for which it pays nothing.

Samsung and Google are the Intel and Microsoft of the 21st century. In the mobile space, it would be difficult for one to succeed without the other. Samsung faces competitive pressures similar to those faced by HTC, Nokia and other makers of hardware powered by other companies' operating systems and content marketplaces; but because it makes the most sophisticated devices that use Android, it benefits from its reliance on Google rather than suffering for it.

The iPad Mini and Google's Cheaper, Larger Tablets

Seen from this perspective, it makes sense that Apple's forthcoming iPad Mini is not that "mini" after all. With a screen that is 40% larger than other 7-inch tablets like those from Google, Samsung and Amazon, it remains different enough from its competitors to justify Apple's usual premium. Rumor has it that the device will be priced between $299 and $349, or at least $100 more expensive than competing tablets of similar size. Apple can continue to command these prices because of its wealth of apps and content, and not only because of its hardware.

Google, meanwhile, will probably soon release both a larger, 10-inch tablet to compete with the original iPad, as well as a remarkably inexpensive, $99 version of its 7-inch tablet. By selling its hardware at cost, Google will continue to drive all but no-name, commodity competitors out of the marketplace for low-end devices.

All this means that any firm that now wants to start building mobile devices, and especially tablets, faces an extremely high barrier to entry. It must choose between trying to create a content ecosystem comparable to those belonging to Google, Amazon and Apple - which are already deeply entrenched - or stay small and regional, and accept cutthroat competition and slim margins.



Marissa Mayer Pledges to Take Yahoo Back to Its Roots
Monday, October 22, 2012 2:46 PMLauren Indvik

Marissa Mayer outlined her plans for Yahoo's future in her first earnings call as CEO of the beleaguered digital media enterprise. The company's third-quarter earnings were better than expected: Earnings-per-share were 35 cents on revenue of $1.09 billion, compared to analysts' estimates of 26 cents per share on revenue of $1.08 billion.

Mayer began the call by talking about recent changes to Yahoo's culture, which has a new commitment to "open dialogue" and "transparency." Employees' quarterly individual goals have been mapped to company goals. They have also been given free phones and free food in an effort to make Yahoo "the absolute best place to work."

Mayer identified Yahoo's "core products" as search, mail, ads, mobile, news and the homepage -- in that order. She emphasized that Yahoo would not change direction dramatically; rather, going back to our roots as a consumer Internet company focused on consumer experience," she said.

"I don't think there's a giant pivot... I think this is about improved execution," she added.

Mobile came up repeatedly during the call. "Some point in the future Yahoo will have to be a predominantly mobile company," Mayer acknowledged, adding that Yahoo needed more mobile engineers. She noted that the company recently deployed a redesigned mobile search page across 23 pages, "resulting in increased usage," and that an update to Flickr for Android received "rave reviews."

One analyst asked Mayer whether Yahoo would go after more of the local ad market. "Local ... is very hard to do well," she said, and as the former head of local services at Google, she would know. "I think our local offerings are good at the momentI think it's hard to take that next step to provide even deeper functionality ...probably not an area where we're going to invest moving forward," she said.

Mayer and new CFO Ken Goldman both suggested that Yahoo's search partnership with Microsoft has been less than satisfactory, but did not elaborate on their plans to address it.

Goldman did not issue fourth-quarter guidance, saying he had not been with the company long enough. (His first day was today.)

Many had expected Mayer to announce some acquisitions -- namely, that of restaurant reservation service OpenTable, and possibly advertising tool PubMatic and mobile ad company Millennial Media. Mayer said Yahoo does not "have particular acquisitions in mind today" and that any future acquisitions would be "less than $100 million."

Image courtesy of Flickr, jolieodell

Get Your Tickets to Mashable Media Summit

The Mashable Media Summit 2012 will explore the impact that technology is having on media, and how digital media is affecting our lives and changing the world. This one-day conference will bring together the brightest minds in media, including content creators, technology leaders, entrepreneurs, social media executives and journalists.

Date: Friday, Nov. 2, 2012

Time: 10:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.

Location: The TimesCenter, 242 West 41st Street, New York, NY 10036

Tickets: Purchase early bird tickets on

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Yahoo Beats Earnings Estimates With Narrower-Than-Expected Revenue Decline
Monday, October 22, 2012 12:56 PMLauren Indvik

Yahoo beat forecasts for third quarter performance, reporting earnings-per-share of 35 cents on revenue of $1.09 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of 26 cents per share on revenue of $1.08 billion.

Total revenue amounted to $3.16 billion, $2.8 million of which came from Yahoo's sale of its $7.6 billion stake in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba.

Display ad revenue was essentially flat year-over-year at $451.6 million, while search ad revenue ticked up by 11% year-over-year to $414.1 million.

This was a closely-watched earnings report for Yahoo, as it represented the first full quarter with new CEO Marissa Mayer in charge. The company didn't reveal much in the way of new product developments in the report, but it did reiterate its roster of new hires under Mayer's leadership, including COO Henrique de Castro, who worked with Mayer at Google, as well as CFO Ken Goldman, CMO Kathy Savitt, General Counsel Ron Bell and EVP of People and Development Jacqueline Reses.

Mayer, who was named CEO of Yahoo the day before Yahoo's last earnings call on July 17, will lead the call for the first time at 5 p.m. Monday. Many are waiting to see if the company will announce any new acquisitions. It has been rumored that Yahoo picked up restaurant reservation service OpenTable, advertising tool PubMatic and Millennial Media, a mobile advertising company, over the last quarter.

Yahoo shares were up about 3% in after hours trading.

Image courtesy of Flickr, codepo8



Check Out Square's New Headquarters [PICS]
Monday, October 22, 2012 11:04 AMSeth Fiegerman

Square is on the move.

The mobile payments company announced Monday that it will relocate its corporate headquarters to 1455 Market Street in San Francisco's Mid-Market neighborhood by mid-2013. Square is currently located nearby in the old San Francisco Chronicle Building downtown.

Square has ballooned from a staff of 10 employees in 2009 to more than 400 this year, and the company plans to grow to 1,000 employees by the end of next year, hence the need for a new, larger space to fit them all.

"We're grateful for San Francisco's commitment to technology, and we're thrilled the city will remain our home," said Jack Dorsey, co-founder and CEO of Square, in a press release. "Square businesses have already facilitated more than $300 million in commerce in San Francisco, and there's so much more we can do to make a difference in the city and around the world."

Here's a look at the new space, images courtesy of Hudson Pacific Properties:



8 Tips to Negotiate a Higher Salary
Monday, October 22, 2012 9:52 AMNellie Akalp

Nellie Akalp is the CEO of CorpNet.com, an online legal document filing service, where she helps entrepreneurs incorporate or form an LLC for their new businesses. Connect with Nellie on Twitter or visit her free resource center.

In case you missed it, a new study on flirting is rippling through the media. The UC Berkeley Haas School of Business found that women who use their "feminine charms" achieved better results in business negotiations.

Gender dynamics in the workplace is serious business. The study got me thinking about the process of negotiating in general. After all, our paycheck is one of the most important elements of our job. We know that negotiations can have a significant impact on compensation, yet all too often we approach the negotiation unprepared and ill-equipped.

SEE ALSO: 7 Reasons Some Entrepreneurs Don't Meet Their Potential

In short, many employees and entrepreneurs (from the app designer to the community manager) work hard to become brilliant at what they do, but fail to develop the negotiation skill set.

Flirting aside, here are eight ways to negotiate your way to a better salary and advancement in the workplace.

1. Negotiate Your Salary From the Start

The majority of new graduates entering the workforce don't negotiate their salaries. According to a study, 57% of men entering the workforce negotiate their salaries, while only 7% of women do the same. Forget about the gender divide for a moment -- a shockingly low number of men and women negotiate their first salaries. And that can have a significant impact on future salaries down the road.

For any new graduates, be thankful you have a job offer in this economy. However, also recognize that employers expect people to negotiate and, therefore, typically offer less than they're actually prepared to pay. Don't wait until you've been on the job for one year; negotiate your first job offer. There's no harm in asking.

2. Come Prepared

Well before you enter the negotiating room, you need to research your market value. Use salary survey tools like Glassdoor, Salary.com and PayScale to identify what other people in similar jobs and geographic areas earn. In addition, consult your own network for honest opinions on current industry salary figures.

3. Be Succinct and Get to the Point

The first 30 seconds is critical to any negotiation. Get to the point up front. Keep it short and swift. No matter how uncomfortable you may be, avoid going off on a tangent to justify your request. There will be plenty of time to cover all the details and your reasoning -- put all your cards on the table right at the very beginning.

4. Be Yourself

You'll find countless articles that explore whether women should adopt a stereotypically masculine bargaining style or employ more traditionally female behavior. Regardless of your gender, employ strength, empathy, boldness and sociability -- all strong negotiating tools used by men and women alike. The key is to adopt whatever strategy comes naturally to you.

5. Be Your Own Advocate Throughout Your Career

Outside of the negotiating room, employees need to stay visible, pursuing raises, opportunities and assignments they deserve. Many intelligent, dedicated individuals work hard but keep their heads down, assuming all great work will pay off. Unfortunately, it doesn't always work that way in business.

With the right amount of humility, you can keep your accomplishments and skills front and center. Think about it this way: If you don't highlight your own achievements, who will? If there's an opportunity that sounds perfect for you, don't wait to be recognized; ask for that prestigious assignment.

6. Get a Sponsor

While everyone needs to be his or her own advocate, research shows that men and women feel more satisfied with their pace of advancement in the workplace when they have a sponsor in their corner. A Harvard Business Review study found that women who had a sponsor were far more willing to negotiate raises and more likely to get promotions and higher salaries.

Not sure what the difference is between a sponsor and a mentor? Heather Foust-Cummings, senior director of research at Catalyst, which has conducted research on sponsorships, breaks it down: "A mentor will talk with you, but a sponsor will talk about you."

A sponsor will not only open doors for you, but also give you the confidence to negotiate what you want.

7. Ask for More Than You Expect to Receive

Don't be afraid to ask for more than you think you can get. And don't jump at the first offer (even if you think it's fair). Chances are, even if your requested amount is flat-out denied, the initial offer will still be considered. And it's better to ask and not receive than to settle for less than you deserve by never asking in the first place.

8. Don't Stop Negotiating Too Soon

The best negotiators don't shut down on the first sign of resistance. Instead, ask clarifying questions and elongate the conversation. You never know where the conversation may go. For many people, the very thought of negotiations makes them so uncomfortable, they look for the first opportunity to escape. But power through -- those five minutes of discomfort can have a long-lasting impact on your career and financial security.

How have you negotiated your own career advancement? Share your stories and tips in the comments below.

Image courtesy of iStockphoto, JLGutierrez



Mashable Media Summit Tickets Will Sell Out Soon
Monday, October 22, 2012 8:49 AMTania Kasongo

Don't delay, get your tickets to the Mashable Media Summit now. The biggest leaders in the industry will share the hottest trends in digital media, from mobile's effect on media to an inside look at Reddit.

You can view the agenda online, and in the gallery below, see an inside look at some of the speakers who will appear on stage at the Media Summit. Get your tickets now before they sell out!

Held on Nov. 2 at The TimesCenter in New York City, the Mashable Media Summit is a one-day conference that will explore the latest innovations in the space and the future of journalism. Plus, you'll have the opportunity to network with high-level executives in many industries and mingle with Mashable staff. Every year, tickets sell out for the Mashable Media Summit, so if you want to guarantee a seat, buy your tickets this week.

Mashable Media Summit Information

Date: Friday, Nov. 2, 2012

Time: 10:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.

Location: The TimesCenter, 242 West 41st Street, New York, NY 10036

Tickets: Purchase tickets on Eventbrite.

A Look Back at Last Year's Mashable Media Summit

Supporting Sponsor

Sponsorship Opportunities

A limited number of sponsor opportunities are available for the Mashable Media Summit. This is an excellent opportunity to get in front of Mashable's passionate and influential audience. Contact sponsorships@mashable.com for opportunities.



Street Campaign Trades Free Shoes for Instagram Photos
Monday, October 22, 2012 8:34 AMLauren Indvik

Montreal-based footwear brand Aldo staged a charming out-of-home campaign in Israel, inviting passersby to snap a photo of their shoes, upload the photo to Instagram with their shoe size and the hashtag #aldo, and ring a bell. In two minutes, a large, rolling present box then appeared, containing -- as you might have expected -- a new pair of Aldo shoes in their size.

The bell was rung more than 450 times and 500 photos were uploaded to Instagram, producing nearly 800,000 interactions, the Israeli creative agency who produced it, Smoyz, says.

The stunt was reminiscent of those produced by Coca-Cola as part of its Open Happiness Project. Over the past few years, the beverage brand has deployed a variety of vending machines and other vehicles that give away free cokes and other prizes in exchange for smiles, hugs and other positive interactions.

Thumbnail photo courtesy iStockphoto, ruslansemichev .

Get Your Tickets to Mashable Media Summit

The Mashable Media Summit 2012 will explore the impact that technology is having on media, and how digital media is affecting our lives and changing the world. This one-day conference will bring together the brightest minds in media, including content creators, technology leaders, entrepreneurs, social media executives and journalists.

Date: Friday, Nov. 2, 2012

Time: 10:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.

Location: The TimesCenter, 242 West 41st Street, New York, NY 10036

Tickets: Purchase tickets on

Sponsorship Opportunities

A limited number of sponsor opportunities are available for the Mashable Media Summit. This is an excellent opportunity to get in front of Mashable's passionate and influential audience. Contact sponsorships@mashable.com for opportunities.



How Google Could Lose Its Grip on Mobile Search
Monday, October 22, 2012 8:05 AMTodd Wasserman

If you think Google has a commanding lead in the traditional search advertising market, you should check out how the company's doing in mobile search.

Last year, 91% of the global market for mobile search went to Google, according to IDC. What's more, while search is 47% of the desktop ad market, it comprises 70% of the mobile ad market. "What's interesting is that number has gone up, not down," says Karsten Weide, program VP, media and entertainment for IDC. "We thought it would normalize, but that's not what's happened."

While Weide expects search to approach desktop levels within a few years, for the foreseeable future, mobile advertising will primarily be about search -- and search will be controlled by Google.

Why? Odds are your smartphone comes with Google as its default search engine. In the third quarter, Google's Android and Apple's iOS comprised 85% of the smartphone market, according to IDC. Both use Google.

SEE ALSO: Peek Inside Google's Vast Data Centers

True, you can swap out Google for another search engine, but Weide estimates that three-quarters of users don't do that. Moreover, "Google is the Kleenex of search," he says. No matter how good the competition is, consumers will continue to believe that Google is the gold standard.

But while Google has a lock on search at the moment, there are a few (unlikely) scenarios in which Google could lose its substantial lead. Such an occurrence is hardly unthinkable in tech -- remember when Yahoo dominated search and Apple looked hopeless compared to Microsoft?

1. Microsoft Makes Serious Inroads

Microsoft is looking to its Windows 8 phones not only to crack the mobile market but to give its Bing search engine a greater share of mobile search, as well. In 2011, Bing's share was just 2% of the mobile search market, even though the company claimed 10.8% of the desktop search market in 2011, according to eMarketer.

However, Microsoft has some reason to hope. For one, its Windows 8 phones have been well-reviewed and boast differentiating features, including a customizable interface that may earn more of a market niche. Second, Weide says mobile carriers are frustrated by Apple and Google's hold on the smartphone market and are eager to help a new entrant along as a power check.

For those reasons, Weide predicts Bing will have a bigger share of the mobile search market by next summer.

"Bigger" is a relative term, though. If Windows 8 phones break into the high single digits or even the low double digits by next summer, it will be considered a huge hit. But "we're talking about a small market share," says Roger Entner, an analyst with Recon Analytics. "Who cares?"

Entner says the only way that Bing could be a real counterbalance in mobile search is if Microsoft agrees to load Bing as the default search engine for iPhones, an unlikely event.

Stefan Weitz, the senior director at Bing, says it's up to Apple and customers to decide whether Bing should be the default on the iPhone.

2. Apple Develops Its Own Search Engine

Another possibility is that Apple kicks Google off the iPhone. This is a more plausible scenario, considering the company's recent moves. Two Google apps -- YouTube and Maps -- are no longer standard on the iPhone. If Apple developed its own search engine, it would instantly capture 17% of the market. (Android had 68% market share of the global market in the third quarter, according to IDC.)

Speculation about an Apple search engine rose after the company hired William Stasior, an Amazon executive, to take over Siri in October. Stasior had previously worked on Amazon's A9 search engine.

While Apple is doubtlessly eager to boot Google off its mobile OS, though, the case against doing so can be summed up in one word: Maps. Apple suffered serious PR damage in September when it replaced Google Maps with its own, vastly inferior Maps app. One can only imagine the outcry if Apple swapped out Google for a mediocre or poor search engine. All the more reason to hold its nose and make a deal with Microsoft.

3. Android Hardware Makers Swap Out Google

Imagine if Google's hardware partners decided to offer another search engine instead of Google. Sound unlikely? Well, it already happened. Back in September, review units of Amazon's new Kindle Fires sported Bing as the device's default search engine. Though users could switch in Google (or Yahoo) if they wanted, as Weide notes, that's fairly unlikely.

Weide says Samsung could use its considerable market heft to make a similar move. Doing so would likely strain relations with Google. Officially, Google does not bar any of its partners from using whichever search engine they like, but since it is providing the OS for free, doing so would cut off a revenue source -- advertising -- for the company. "That's the whole point of Android," Entner says.

4. Yahoo Makes a Big Comeback

The biggest longshot of all is that Yahoo somehow returns to its glory days and begins making serious inroads into mobile search. Right now, the company has about 2% of the market, but has no mobile OS of its own and hence no leverage to convince hardware makers to offer it.

Not all is lost, though. Weide believes that if Yahoo were to offer a truly superior mobile search app, consumers would seek it out. The trouble is, it doesn't at the moment. "A lot of consumers would go the extra mile if Yahoo had a good product," he says, "but it's not out there."

Whether new CEO Marissa Mayer will be able to resurrect Yahoo is, of course, a $60 million question. So far, Mayer hasn't articulated a mobile strategy for the company. Yahoo declined to be interviewed for this article.

5. Voice-Controlled Search Reshuffles the Market

Of course, nothing remains static for long in the tech industry. While "mobile search" conjures images of consumers tapping on their smartphones, many are talking to them instead. If the technology improves, that may become the norm. At the moment, Weide believes Siri is not ready for prime time. "Right now, Siri is a gimmick because it doesn't work that well," he says. "Over time, it might have an impact."

Google's voice search is similarly klugy, though the technology keeps improving. However, there's always the distant possibility that a new entrant will come out of nowhere and take a significant share of the market.

How does advertising fit into this picture, though? Imagine talking to your phone only to hear a 10-second ad before getting your search result. "Stay tuned for spoken commercials in search results," Weide says. "They have to make money somehow."

6. Mobile Search Undergoes a Radical Reinvention

Perhaps the most likely scenario in which Google loses control of mobile search is if the notion of "mobile search" is radically redefined. Microsoft's Weitz predicts that by 2015, 40% of searches will come from within apps. Already, he says, consumers are executing searches via Open Table and Flipboard, rather than through traditional search engines.

In such a future, it will be tough for anyone -- Google included -- to make money. "One of the key challenges is it's really hard to monetize," Weitz says, referring to app-based searches.

The waters get further muddied if you view search the way Weitz does: as a chain of events rather than a "single query and get out" action. Imagine, for instance, sitting on your couch and viewing a cooking show on TV. "You could pointat the TV and say 'Bookmark that recipe,'" Weitz says. Since your phone understands what you're looking at, it could then procure the ingredients and have them delivered to your house. "You're going from intent to task completion," Weitz says.

Such a vision blurs the line between advertising, retail and even mobile. After all, what's so "mobile" about sitting on your couch? But it's a future that no one -- not even Google -- has any claims on.

 

Get Your Tickets to Mashable Media Summit

 

 

 

The Mashable Media Summit 2012 will explore the impact that technology is having on media, and how digital media is affecting our lives and changing the world. This one-day conference will bring together the brightest minds in media, including content creators, technology leaders, entrepreneurs, social media executives and journalists.

 

Date: Friday, Nov. 2, 2012 

Time: 10:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. 

Location: The TimesCenter, 242 West 41st Street, New York, NY 10036

Tickets: Purchase early bird tickets on

 

Sponsorship Opportunities

 

A limited number of sponsor opportunities are available for the Mashable Media Summit. This is an excellent opportunity to get in front of Mashable's passionate and influential audience. Contact sponsorships@mashable.com for opportunities. 



 
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